Has Ange Postecoglou been a success at Tottenham? Champions League dream unlikely

Tottenham Hotspur travel to Stamford Bridge tonight to face Chelsea with their Champions League aspirations looking bleak. It's now impossible for fifth place to secure qualification due to English clubs’ poor European performance, Tottenham trail Aston Villa by seven points but they do possess two games in hand.

The complication for Spurs is those games are an away clash against fierce rivals Chelsea and a visit from Manchester City on their quest to secure a record fourth consecutive title. It’s been a capricious first season in charge for Ange Postecoglou as his side have fallen off dramatically after an imperious start. After 10 games in the Premier League, Tottenham were undefeated and top of the league with 26 points from a possible 30. Postecoglou’s men had scored 22 goals and conceded nine as the Australian boss received wide-spread plaudits for Tottenham’s form and transforming their style of play after three conservative managers but what’s happened since?

Why has Tottenham’s form plummeted after an incredible start?

To put Tottenham’s unbeaten start to the season into context, only three clubs - Arsenal (22/23), Liverpool (19/20) and Man City (17/18)  - have accumulated more points than Spurs’ total of 26  in their first ten games across the last ten seasons. Tottenham were flying high at the top of the league but warning signs were visible in their first defeat of the campaign against Chelsea. Despite being reduced to nine men by 55 minutes, Postecoglou stubbornly persevered with his philosophy of playing a high line, which led to widespread criticism with Gary Neville labelling his tactics “naive”. 

It’s imperative to stress that Spurs suffered considerable injury issues in defence after that Chelsea defeat but they’ve failed to replicate their early season form ever since. As the graphic above illustrates, Tottenham only have the tenth best record in the Premier League since matchday 11. Postecoglou’s men have picked up the same amount of points as Wolves and Everton and although Tottenham have played two less games, their games in hand appear troublesome. The main issue for Spurs is that Aston Villa have picked up 11 more points since matchday 11 and Unai Emery’s side seem destined to secure the final Champions League spot.

Discerning voices amongst the Spurs support have become increasingly audible in recent weeks and no team has failed to qualify for the Champions League after picking up 26 points or more in their first ten games - like Tottenham managed this season. While Tottenham picked up an average of 2.6 points per game in their opening ten league games, that has dropped to 1.47 across their next 23 fixtures. They’ve also kept just one clean sheet in their last 16 games after registering four in their opening ten games, while their inability to defend set pieces has also been hugely concerning. Only four clubs have conceded more than Spurs’ 14 this season - including two against Arsenal on Sunday - but Postecoglou has dismissed suggestions that this represents a weakness in his side. 

How Ange Postecoglou’s record compares to previous Tottenham managers

Since Mauricio Pochettino’s departure in 2019, Tottenham chairman Daniel Levy has failed to appoint a manager that has built a strong connection with the fanbase. Pochettino was incredibly popular in North London and he transformed the club’s fortunes and famously led them to the Champions League final in 2019. In José Mourinho and Antonio Conte, Levy brought in two serial winners but neither were able to replicate their success from previous clubs while Nuno Espírito Santo was an unmitigated disaster. Postecoglou, however, has built a rapport with the fanbase with this forthright approach and commitment to play attractive football. 

As the graphic above illustrates, Postecoglou actually has the second worst points per game record of the previous five Spurs managers but there’s an acceptance that he took the reins during a period of transition after losing talisman Harry Kane. The Australian was widely praised for his recruitment in the summer with James Maddison, Micky van de Ven and Guglielmo Vicario all widely recognised as successful signings. Postecoglou’s adventurous philosophy has also been refreshing for Spurs supporters after his three predecessors were renowned for their pragmatic approach. Tottenham didn’t compete in European competition this season after a dismal 2022/23 campaign and that has allowed Postecoglou to focus on domestic competitions but their performance in the League Cup and FA Cup was disappointing. 

In terms of the Premier League, Spurs are on course to record their second best Premier League points tally across the last five seasons. With five games remaining, Postecoglou’s men are on the same amount of points as they accumulated last season and they would require three more points from a possible 15 to eclipse their 71-point haul from the 2021/22 season under Nuno/Conte. The 86 points collected by Pochettinho’s side during the 2016/17 remains the record high in the Premier League era and Spurs finished second that season - seven points behind winners Manchester City.